Chad's Chatter

[Chad Crittenden]

Episode 1 (Part 1: Pre-Swap)

I’ll try not to make this one a novel. TRY.

Rankdown (Palena):

10. Jolanda: UGGGGHHH. What a shit show. So we have a couple of things going on here. Firstly, Jolanda is completely changing up her game from last season – to the point she is also not doing those things that she did well in Costa Rica. She’s not PMing people, she’s being short, she’s not trying to strategize with anyone, she’s not posting on the forum at Camp. She’s being a total borewhore and almost no one likes her. Shit even Brook is talking about how boring she is and he knows her. Not good. So with all of this going on, there are alliances forming everywhere around her that she is neither a part nor aware of. Now enter Jolanda-gate. I’ve been posting updates in the Episode 1 thread about all of this but holy fucking hell what a mess. Because of point 1, and people generally not really liking Jo to begin with, this controversy has spun out of control. An innocent message to Brook about liking Erica better than Ted and wanting her in their alliance has telephoned its way into Jolanda being the devious mastermind of the season forming alliances left and right, inviting people and not telling them, not inviting people. UGGGGGHHH. The irony is astounding considering she's intentionally trying to play UTR. The swap can only help Jolanda because if the tribes stayed the same she would be voted off in a unanimous vote. The vets in her tribe will have a use for her, if they plan on sticking together, once the swap happens so she hopefully won’t be the first to go.

9. John: John hasn’t done anything wrong YET. Well except having his brother’s bachelor party (buck’s as they apparently call it in Oz) so he hasn’t really been on much nor talked to anyone. His name has been thrown around as the first boot. It is really going to depend on who he lands with after the swap to determine his fate in the game, especially given his challenge competence. I *think* the Aussies will try to protect him for a bit. But as of now, besides them, he doesn’t have many fans.

8. Ted: From all the frigging hype about Ted we got pre-season, he’s sort of a let down here. There are alliances all over the place and he’s really only in one of them (The Oz Alliance) which I personally question the strength of as a few of them have some parachutes that they are giving priority over Oz. He’s also formed a Greece alliance, but considering Jake ranks him last on the list of people he likes/trusts….. yea that one’s not gonna happen. Maybe he’s waiting for the action to start, but his only activity is talking about the Australian Open with Chase. I’m hoping he steps it up soon, which he’s probably going to have to at the swap. The swap could be interesting for Ted if he lands there without a majority of the Aussies and lands with Holly, who apparently knows him and hates him. We’ll see….. but this season certainly isn’t starting off as That's So Ted by any stretch of the imagination.

7. Erica: Erica is freaking hilarious. She’s taken to sending people who annoy/bore her nonsense in PMs. Even though Erica has a few things going on, I’m not sure how serious the people in her “alliance” are taking it. Brook has said he doesn’t trust her. Brook is also telling the Aussies everything Erica says to him. That doesn’t bode well for Erica. I think some of her recent PM antics may alienate her from Ken/Jake whom she may unknowingly need in the very near future. She’s getting a little bit too comfortable and she really has no business being comfortable at the moment. She legitimately does hate everyone though, so you have to appreciate her honesty.

5./6. Jake/Ken: I couldn’t rank them separately because they are kind of an entity and I can’t really choose one over the other. Everyone seems to like them and throws their names around as potential alliance mates. Jake and Fabio get along really well and chat for hours about non-game non-bullshit stuff. On the flipside, Chase sees Ken as someone he can take under his wing and bring along with him for the ride. So in my mind they are pretty much even and the two of them are a known Greek pair in the game. Considering I think Fabio/Chase are currently the power players, this puts them in a very safe position for now. I’d be pretty shocked if these two left before the merge again. Unless something completely nuts happens at the swap, they should make it which sounds like is their goal.

4. Brook: Brook is set up pretty nicely right now and until he fucks it up, he is in a pretty safe spot. He’s solidly with The Oz Alliance and has parachutes in Erica and Fabio. The problem is… Brook is telling the Aussies EVERYTHING which will most likely bite him in the ass at some point. He’s putting way too much faith in that very fragile Oz thing. The only reason I ranked him ahead of Jake/Ken is because he is being brutally honest with Chase, and that will probably take him pretty far. Chase doesn’t seem to have a lot of respect for Brook’s game, and if he sees him as a bitch goat he can drag to the end, he may jump on that opportunity. (Can you tell I think Chase is the one to watch out of the vets? )

3. Russhole: SHOCKINGLY…. Russell is in a pretty good position right now, even with that annoying fucking schtick that kinda makes me want to punch him in the nutsack. But that is neither here nor there. He dropped the schtick for a brief time (it’s back again ) with Fabio and Chase and they love him. They will make sure he’s safe and even if he’s annoying a few people, like Jake, I don’t think it’s going to matter. He went from the dude whose name is being thrown out as a first boot, to someone everyone wants in their alliance in a matter of a day. We’ll see what happens with the swap, but if he ends up with the right people, he’s in a good spot for a while, if not all the way to the end as a goat.

1./2. Fabio/Chase: Power duo. These two are killing it right now. I can’t really determine which of the two is in a better position yet, because they both have their strengths. Chase has the Aussie connection he is working. Fabio is working Jake and Erica hard. These two are a pair that’s going to do some damage and according to Chase, his alliance with Fabio and Russhole is the real deal. The only area where Chase might eke out Fabio a bit is on the partner front. Yve is a goddess and totally open to working with Chase. Dan doesn’t like Fabio and has already told half the tribe who his partner is. But at this point, these two guys are positioned fabulously until someone figures it out, and who knows if it will be too late at that point. If they end up together on the same tribe after the swap, it would be remiss to think they won’t dominate, knowing there are at least two newbs willing to flip, along with their charm. Holly may pose a problem for Chase, but we’ll really have to see where everyone lands before I would start worrying about him.

Current Palena Alliances ( I am not sure I can actually get them all):

- The Oz Alliance – John, Brook, Chase, Ted: The only one who believes in this is Brook.
- Chase, Fabio, Russhole: This is most likely the real deal for all three of them.
- Erica, Brook, Chase, Fabio, Russhole: They want to bring Jake in as a sixth vote. Funny that no one except Brook even told Chase about this alliance. I honestly think this alliance only exists in Erica’s head.
- Brook, Jolanda, Ken, Jake, Erica: The cause of Jolanda-gate. This fizzled out before it started when Erica had an aneurism over Jolanda telling Brook she liked her.
- Greece Alliance: Ken, Jake, Ted: Jake hates Ted. This isn’t going to happen. Stop trying to make it happen.
- Erica, Jake, Chase, Fabio, Russhole: I’m pretty sure this is Chase’s misunderstanding of the Erica alliance mostly on account of Erica has never talked to him about it. Ironically doing exactly what she accused Jolanda of.

Edit: John is now on and driving the short bus all over Brook to anyone and everyone who will listen to him telling them how Brook made three alliances last season and he is shady. This may or may not affect my rankings if people believe him. At this point I don't give a shit though. It took me too long to write that.

Palena dynamics Such a hot mess.

Episode 1 (Part 1: Pre-Swap)

Partners:

Dan & Fabio: This isn’t going too well. The only thing Fabio has said to Dan is “Don’t question me jackass”. At this point I think it’s safe to say Fabio doesn’t give a fuck about his partner.

Jill and Ted’s Excellent Adventure: Jill and Ted are cute and actually working together. They have pretty much figured out who all the partners are, with a few errors, and they’ve already begun strategizing on who they can eliminate from the game based on the partners. Maybe this is where That’s So Ted starts to become a thing. It’s supposed to be a thing, right?

JoJo & HoHo: My fucking gods Jolanda is even being boring with her secret partner. There’s no talk between the two of them about anything except their names. Please make it stop. It hurts.

Jimmy J & Erica: Oh em gee. Fucking amazing. This interaction is by far the only entertaining thing that is happening in this game. I mean… it’s just beautiful. But, as I’ve said elsewhere, what I can’t figure out…. Apparently Erica’s existence has motivated Jimmy J to actually play the game and try to make the merge. So what.the.fuck.is.he.doing???? Nevermind. One of the more unusual things that stuck out for me in their interaction was Jimmy J saying, and I quote:

Eh, I'm not too stressed right now. I know I've got one awesome person to talk to, and that makes this entire game so much fuckin' better, like, you have no idea. SO HAPPY it's you who picked me, otherwise I would have let the ship fucking sink. Now I'm gonna take everyone else out so we're the last team standin'.

I'll get back to you when I figure out how tod o that, lol. I'm pretty sure I'll be fairly safe, regardless.

What? No…. seriously….. WHAT??????????

Jake & Wendy Jo: Jake and Wendy Jo are cute too and I can see them legit trying to work together in the future. Wendy Jo knows the poster that is behind Jake and likes him a lot. They’re just sharing information at this point, but I think they will probably try to make this partnership work.

Ken & Tyrone: Tyrone has made it clear he doesn’t give a shit about his partner and I don’t think he’s trying to hide that from Ken. His answers are short and fuckwitted and missing S’s, not that this is any different from the rest of his communications. I can’t see Ken warming up to that. They haven’t really talked and I’m not anticipating anything to really emerge from this.

Chase & Yve: This is the one to look out for people. As of yet, no one has figured out they are together, although that may change. Yve is opening up to Chase and really does want to work with him. And given Chase’s history of excelling at the partner twist, this is a match made in heaven. They will be dangerous if they can pull it off.

Brook and Jimmy T: I think it was pretty idiotic for Brook to choose Jimmy T the way he did, but I guess he’s making it pretty clear he is not interested in the partner twist. That is good for Brook, because from what I saw from Jimmy T’s app, coupled with the fact that he missed the first few days, the chances of Jimmy T being one of the last ones standing is pretty small. This actually may boost Brook’s value if Jimmy T goes, because everyone knows that they are partners.

Russell & Jane: This one has the potential for hilarity, but neither one of them has made an effort to communicate with the other at all – they haven't even started a thread.

John & Marty: If I had to guess, John is going to try to work this relationship. Marty is already calling him dumb for giving him any information, so I highly doubt this goes anywhere. It would be sorta funny if John tries to align with him if they both make the merge and Marty ends up causing John’s demise.

Palena dynamics Such a hot mess.

It's really where all the action is. Other than Erica & Jimmy J's secret forum.

Ted = not actually a good player, he's just crazy and overplays.

I disagree wtih Carl here, I think Ted is a great player :)

I disagree wtih Carl here, I think Ted is a great player :)

For entertainment value? Totally. :)

Episode 1 (Part 1: Pre-Swap)

Swap Predictions

nuPalena
Chase, Erica, Jolanda, Russell, Ted / Dan, Jimmy T, Marty, Tyrone, Wendy Jo

This tribe is a fucking mess .

Of the vets, we have Erica and Jolanda landing together so that is sure to bring lulz. Unfortunately Brook isn’t there to “accidentally” start any more rumors about Jolanda being a demon queen. Jolanda will continue to be a borewhore I’m sure, but her style may endear her to a few of the newbs. Maybe? Erica and Russell are together, and I’m fairly certain Russell is Erica’s number one. Add Chase to the mix and that’s a threesome, aside from the fact that Russell is one of Chase’s top priorities. But what of the Jolanda situation? Will they decide to work together and try to get a newb with them (Wendy Jo?) or is Erica’s hatred of Jolanda going to dominate her actions? Then there is the Chase and Ted connection and Chase will probably have no choice but to bring him into the mix, which I’m sure he’d be happy to do. Erica is really the wildcard here and I’m not sure what we will see from her. Her head may blow off after she meets some of the newbs. Maybe she will even retrospectively warm up to some of her original tribe members when she sees what awful really can aspire to.

From the newbs side, we have Dan and Wendy Jo together, and I’m sure they will pull Marty into their inner circle. However Wendy Jo despises Tyrone. Dan clearly doesn’t as he was originally aligned with him. I see this causing some disturbance amongst the nuPlayground Bullies. But Dan didn’t seem to have an issue, at least in PMs to Wendy Jo, with pushing Tyrone to the side. But that dynamic is going to be fun to watch. Pile on the inactive Jimmy T, who is a clear first boot, sending the newbs into an immediate 5-4 disadvantage vs. the vets. I kind of see Wendy Jo working her way in with Chase, and maybe even Ted and Russell so the lines may blur. She’s made it clear she will not under any circumstances be in an alliance with Tyrone. I am excited for lines to blur because it just feels like this scenario is set up to be a total vet domination if they stick to sides (sans the shaky Jolanda situation).

There is no doubt in my mind this tribe is going to bring the entertainment. We have at least two pre-existing rivalries in Erica/Jolanda and Wendy Jo/Tyrone. We have Tyrone which in and of itself is pretty interesting to watch. Being stuck with the inactive may be a blessing for them in that it gives them a one TC buffer for everyone to settle in where they want to end up. Unless Erica continues to push the Jolanda boot out of sheer hatred, but I have a feeling Russel and Chase will try to talk her down off the ledge.

nuAtacama
Brook, Fabio, Jake, John, Ken / Holly, Jane, Jill, JimmyJ, Yve

I really think the vets vs. newbs sentiment is going to be much stronger on this tribe as opposed to nuPalena.

The vets dynamic in this scenario seem much more predictable. Brook clearly wants to stick with John and the rest of the Aussies, even though John doesn’t have a lot of faith in this. But Brook’s actions should be sending a bit of a message to John that he is trying to help him – i.e. coaching him to talk to some of the other tribe members more because they were throwing his name around. John started off slowly, on account of playing with bucks and things, but has made a good effort at reaching out to people in the past day or so, especially Jake, Ken, and Fabio. Jake and Ken are a natural pair and being separated from Ted will most likely bring them even closer. Fabio is in a bit of a pickle, as I’m sure this is in no way his ideal situation. He has been talking about wanting to split up the Greeks, but now that Ted is on a different tribe, perhaps this won’t matter so much anymore? There is a risk here of John getting all paranoid he’s going to get blindsided and do something dumb, but the straightforward answer here is that the 5 vets are going to stick together, at least in the short term. It would also be a wise strategy on their end to try to boot as many newbs as possible because they are eliminating an existing partnership with each one.

The newbs dynamic seems pretty clear too. We have the MILF/Old Broad alliance in Yve, Jill, and Holly that I have to assume will stick together. Jane and Jimmy J are clearly on the outs, however considering the situation, I’m not sure the ladies will be willing to cut bait on them. Jimmy J could do literally anything, however given the fact that he believes he is currently safe on Atacama, he must assume he has formed good relationships with his current tribe mates? I think? His desire to work with Erica may inspire him to do something crazy like flip to the vets? I have no fucking idea because I don’t think he has an inkling of strategy in him. But I see the girls trying to reel him in and as long as they put up with his bullshit, he’ll probably think they are all best friends. Jane is a wildcard. I have no idea what we will see from her. She hasn’t been very active this weekend at all. She may try to pull a crazy move, can you say “hated goat”?, and that ends up fucking things up for the MILFs. I’m not sure, but I’m thinking if any of them are smart they are going to want to try to stick together.

So it would appear a clear 5 vs. 5 divide is a helluva lot more likely on nuAtacama and will make for some interesting scrambling when they lose immunity.

Episode 1 (Part 2: Post-Swap)


Atacama

Atacama is a tad dull and a tad like opening weekend given they won the challenge last night so they don't have to worry about Tribal Council. There are a few interesting dynamics, however.

First of all, the vets vs. newbs force is strong with this one. The vets seems to want to stick together, at least for a bit, and this sentiment is strong with the newbs as well (sans Yve). They don't have anything to worry about for a few more hours. If they lose tonight, I really wonder where everyone is going to land. The smarter players are obviously going to look at this as a reset. The ones who try to stand firmly in vets vs. newbs will probably not fair very well. Especially if there is another swap, which I'm sure there will be.

The MILFs (Holly, Jill, and Yve) stayed together in the swap so that is a threesome to look out for. The problem here is I honestly have no idea where Yve's head is right now. She wrote in her confessional that she thrives in a swing vote situation and using "fear-control" to her advantage. She's a smart cookie and that was an interesting assessment, but because she has been focusing on being social and PMing (moreso than anyone else on Atacama), I'm just not sure at the moment if she plans on sticking with the MILFs. She will surely put forth the allusion of MILFs all the way. I'm just not sure where her true loyalties will actually land, if anywhere.

Brook came up with an interesting proposal to John and both John and Brook have recently talked to Yve about it. The idea is that John's and Chase's partners and themselves team up to form a cross-tribe alliance with Brook. Marty had expressed liking Yve the most out of all the original Atacama's to Yve. So this alliance would consist of Yve, Marty, Chase, Brook, and John. Yve has yet to respond to this idea, talk about it in her confessional, or approach Chase with the idea, so I really have no idea what she will think of this. Something to look out for in this turn of events, is many of the newbs have heard from their partners that John and Brook were on the outs due to their experience in Costa Rica and the newbs were going to try to use this to break apart Brook and John and get one of them to flip. I wonder if Yve will share that they may actually be close. Ted also told Jill that the bigger rift may be between John and Ken, not John and Brook and she has subsequently shared this information with the MILFs.

Another cross-tribe partner alliance also seems to be blooming in Ted, Chase, Yve, and Jill. This one they have all actually talked about and agreed to. However, again, Yve hasn't commented on any of this in the privacy of her confessional so making assumptions about her intentions is impossible at this point. I'm also not sure how serious Jill is about this as she seems to be one of the more die-hard newbs to the end characters, which will most likely be her downfall in the game.

Just a few other thoughts before I get to rankdowning: Ken and Jake are clueless. They seem to be marching to the beat of their own drummer and I open up their PMs after reading all the others and go I have no idea what is going on in Fabio's head at all, as he currently just seems to hate everything and everyone and his only concern is making sure he's not voted off. Jane is actually trying to strategically play the game, albeit in a sorta outside the box kinda way. Jimmy J sent a few threatening PMs to the vets and then went offline, but apparently wants to try to team up with Fabio, based on advice from Erica

With that, here we go:

Rankdown (Atacama):

10. Jane: Jane is being perceived as a schemer and while she thinks she has some grand master plans, they all really backfire on her. She is also solidly playing newbs vs. vets which just isn't going to work out for her. We have the leftover suspicion of the newbs from her "hated goat" plan which the others perceived as overplaying and scheming. And now post swap, she has come up with a plan to try to endear herself to Fabio and try to form an alliance with him and get him to "flip" to the newbs side. I'm not sure why she picked Fabio. He may have been the worst choice of the whole bunch. Maybe Russell told her something about liking Fabio? I can't remember. Whatever it was.... it ain't working. The newbs don't like the move because they think she's placing a target on herself. And Fabio didn't really didn't appear to give a fuck about her attempt to work with him. The only positive thing Jane has going for her atm is that Yve, the only potential flipper of the newbs, seems to like her. I think? It's so hard to read Yve because she has a million things going on and hasn't really outlined her true plans yet, and I don't want to disturb her while she is in the process of working her magic on everyone right now. All of this, combined with the fact that Jane was a clueless dolt in the challenge last night, will most likely lead to her being the first boot, unless she can turn something around.

9. Jimmy J: As usual I have no idea what the fuck Jimmy J is doing. He hasn't kept up the social aspect of the game, not that he ever had one, since the challenge last night. His few PMs included doing his thing to the vets whom are the least likely to tolerate that (specifically John, Brook, and Fabio). One of his PMs was to Fabio and it basically said that Erica told him that the two of them were in an alliance and then threatened him to not lie to him with a lot of fucks mixed in. The newbs don't trust him at all and fear that he is a risk to flip on them. I wonder why that would be? It could be on account of the fact that he started a public thread announcing he was going to vote however the fuck he wanted to and he wouldn't be joining any fucking alliances and shit? Maybe? The only reason I haven't ranked him dead last is because other than Holly, he was the second most helpful at the challenge last night. And if the tribe does come together and start working more as a tribe, it would be obvious that he is an asset than the likes of Jane from that perspective.

8./7. Ken and Jake: I have to talk about them as an entity again because it seems they are playing Stranded in a world that differs from the world the rest of the players are in. They are really clueless and they baffle me. Apparently they've decided, and they think the rest of the vets have as well, that Jill will be the first boot, followed by Brook. What? Mmmmkay. Well for starters, Jill is one of the least likely first boots, considering they would need someone to "flip" (*cough* Yve), and well I can't see Yve willing to make that move considering the secret cross tribe alliance she has going. In addition, no one seems to particularly enjoy Ken or Jake. Both Erica and Russell have told Wendy Jo that they were glad to see Jake go and Wendy Jo kindly passed that information on to Jake. Wendy Jo is also now pissed off at Jake thinking he told everyone they were partners, neither of them realizing pretty much everyone's already figured them out. This is a testament to the cluelessness that is abound in the Jake/Ken duo. And any alliance talk that is happening on Atacama has not included either Ken or Jake. The vets may not be quick to get rid of them, but based on all of the above, coupled with the *whispers* pre-swap about breaking up the Greeks, I am slowly watching their games unravel before my eyes. My earlier prediction that both of them will make the merge is probably far off. Maybe a huge immunity run could help? I'm just not feeling it right now.

6. Fabio: This is where it gets a little bit hard because it's so early and so many things can change. But right now Fabio isn't doing a whole helluva lot besides being friendly with people. Not that there is anything wrong with that, and apparently that's how he plays, but it makes it difficult to really know what to expect here. If we do have a majority alliance that emerges on Atacama, I'm not sure that Fabio will be a part of it. I can see John/Brook maybe wanting to ensure they have Chase all to themselves and trying to make a move on Fabio. Also the pre-swap talk about Fabio/Russell/Erica alliance may be enough to persuade them to act sooner rather than later as well. Fabio seems to be playing the "I don't give a fuck as long as I'm safe game." Which could work well for him. Or it could not. I don't think I've seen enough of him to predict anything yet.

5. Jill: Jill is newbies to the end. This is going to most likely hurt her if and when 1. Yve flips and 2. there is another swap. Things are building on the other tribe and she may be falling down the priority list of people like Dan, Wendy Jo, and Marty. I think what will keep her safe for a bit is her MILF alliance if Jill and Holly actually stick with it. They can keep the target off of her for a while if they so choose. Her absence from challenges may hurt her as well. Like I said, this is hard to predict because we are dealing with a new tribe who won their first Immunity Challenge. At this point I'm going to predict she makes the merge, but she'll be struggling a bit at that point, unless Ted makes it too and they take full advantage of that opportunity. However the fact that she is telling Holly and Yve every single thing Ted tells her, does not make me optimistic. I think she is going to be clinging onto her original tribal lines and end up like one of the violin players on the deck of the Titanic.

4. Holly: Holly is strategically in a good position and making good social connections with people. I think she actually may be Yve's favorite, but it's really hard to tell. I'm not sure how much she plans on hiding her challenge prowess, but I would think that the tribe would want to keep her around based on that, coupled with their general enjoyment of her as a person. Her name has been brought up as one of the more savvy strategic players, so there is the potential she will be seen as a threat. I think it may be a while before that comes into play, however.

3. Brook: I'm probably ranking Brook higher than he should be ranked. His name has been thrown around a lot as a threat/schemer/whatever. Ken and Jake have been incessantly talking about how Brook "flipped" to avoid a tie in Costa Rica (which isn't even true) and how he can't be trusted. Chase told Yve that Brook was a gamebot and hard to read and she translated that into Brook was the most strategic player of the vets? And then there is the John situation that could erupt at any moment. So yea.... I'm probably ranking him too high. I just feel at this moment that he is set up very nicely strategically, especially if Yve takes the cross-tribe deal, and as long as he keeps his head on and doesn't do anything crazy, he's in one of the better positions on the tribe.

2. John: I like where John is right now. He's started PMing since his busy weekend and people seem to like him more now - exponentially more than the boring Jake and Ken. I don't think he's seen as a threat - if anything they would take a shot at Brook over John. As long as he keeps up the friendly demeanor and doesn't try to make a move to be HBIC, he's looking alright now. He also managed to endear himself with some of the vets before the swap which can only help him at the merge. If they actually get the cross-tribe alliance going, that is something that should be feared later in the game. His biggest issue is going to be his challenge performance (ignoring the potential for him to rub someone the wrong way which I don't think has happened yet), especially if he completely loses a challenge for the tribe. But there are enough competitors left that it may not be a huge factor. And this may be seen as a good reason to keep him around after the merge. Of course this could all change in the blink of a gnat's ass hair, but for right now, I'm putting John in second place dammit.

1. Yve: My girl is on FIRE. She's killing this. She started off pretty slowly but her charm quickly moved her up the ranks pre-swap and she has by far been the most social with all the members of nuAtacama. If you noticed above when I was giving a summary of the goings on, Yve is front and center. She's got an excellent partnership with Chase. She's got a pre-existing alliance in the MILFs. And TWO cross-tribe alliances being handed to her on a silver platter. Yve is making the most out of the swap situation and is clearly going into this with her head in the game. I don't think she has a solid number two, but at this point, I don't think she needs one. She is gaining the trust of Jill, Holly, John, Brook, Chase. I just sit here in awe watching every PM flow from her and completely understand why she is becoming so loved. But it all seems to be with a purpose to further her end game, which is not apparent to those around her either. There's nothing negative to say at this point. I just wish she would tell us what her master plan is.

Episode 1 (Part 2 Post-Swap)

Palena

I'm just going to do a quick (by Chad's standards) ranking of Palena based on all the information I had this morning. I haven't paid attention to Palena for the bulk of the day, and I think some things may have changed?

As of last night there was a core alliance forming of Dan, Marty, Wendy Jo, Russell, Chase, and Ted. My rankdown will be based on this. HOWEVER, I have seen some things alluding to the fact that the newbs may make a run at getting Jolanda to flip and work with all of them to take out the vets. I'm not sure how much I am going to buy that one taking form, but we'll see?

Anyways.....

Rankdown (Palena):

10. Jimmy T: He's getting voted out tonight (unanimously) and doesn't seem to give a shit. Don't let the door hit ya and stuff Jimmy T.

9. Jolanda: The vets have talked, and considering none of them really care too much for Jolanda, they are happy to boot her next given the chance. As I said above, I'm not sure how much weight I can put in that newbs rally and whether or not Wendy Jo would be up for it because I haven't really investigated too much, but based on everything I know for sure, Jolanda is on the outs should Palena lose a second time.

8. Tyrone: I mean.... that's not shocking. He doesn't connect with anyone. Wendy Jo despises him. He was beyond clueless in the challenge last night. Can't see him lasting long.

7. Erica: Russell told Erica about the majority alliance forming to which she was not included and she immediately went into paranoid mode PMing everyone about it. I see her as a loose cannon who will somehow blow up her game. And if that majority alliance is the real deal, Erica isn't in on it. Ironically she may be in better shape if tried to work with Jolanda, but she won't let that happen.

6. Marty: While Marty is being included in the majority of alliance discussions for now, he's still on the cusp and could easily be replaced by Erica. He doesn't seem to really warm up to people and they view him as a little shady. A cross tribe alliance with Chase, John, Brook, and Yve could help him, but I'm not sure if Chase would take that seriously enough to try to protect him.

5. Dan: As I've said before, as much as Dan claims to not be the HBIC, he is. And he's going to be an easy scapegoat for a boot should the opportunity arise. I don't think any of the newbs are as close with Dan as the ones that ended up on Atacama, and the vets are perceiving him as a bit pushy and overplaying.

4. Ted: Ted is the lower tier of the vets with his only true connection being Chase, whom I only have to assume will try to protect him. Beyond that he has to step up his social game a bit and try to endear himself to more people than just his Aussies. It doesn't seem many people are really feeling Ted atm.

3. Chase: If the six person alliance works out, Chase is in a really good position, given his cross-tribal connections as well. Unfortunately he is also being perceived as a strong player and a threat down the road. I saw brief talk about potentially targeting Chase at next tribal? If that happens this is going to be SHOCKING AND CRAZY. I'm just not sure that's going to happen.

2. Wendy Jo: Wendy Jo is in a good position right now as she is straddling the vets vs. newbs horse and also is getting on very well with everyone in the tribe. I doubt she would be a target anytime soon and she is currently in a position to make things go her way, being a potential swing vote. At this point, I'm just not sure which way Wendy Jo wants to swing. Stay tuned.

1. Russhole: Yep. Russell has a lot of control right now and he's gaining a lot of support quickly from his tribe mates. He has the ability to probably flip a couple of people in and out of his main alliance if he chose to. He's also trying for the idol pretty hard. If Chase ends up on the chopping block, this all will drastically change. But for now I'm calling Palena Russell's game to lose.

Episode 2


Atacama

Well, even though Atacama lost the Immunity Challenge last night, their camp is still pretty fucking dull. They had about 1/4 the number of PMs that Palena had last night. There have been a few things happening, obviously, since they need to vote tonight.

The vets vs. newbs line has been completely obliterated, at least with most of them. Neither Yve nor Holly give a shit about voting out a newb. Ken and Jake put their heads together last night and decided that Jill should be the target due to her inability to make the Immunity Challenges. As I said yesterday, that was all well and good, but Ken and Jake aren't the decision makers. The Jill proposal got a bit of traction, but it all came to a halt when Holly told Jill she was the target. Jill quickly scrambled and PMed Brook essentially telling him she would agree to be his bitch. Brook jumped on that, considering his name was being thrown around by Holly as a potential first boot. So Jill and Ted have now been pulled into the cross-tribe alliance mix of which there are now several variations:

Yve/Chase and Jill/Ted
Yve/Chase and Jill/Ted and Brook
Yve/Chase and Marty/John and Brook
Yve/Chase and Jill/Ted and Marty/John and Brook

And upon Brook’s suggestion, which also matched Holly’s desire, the first boot will be Jane, and the vote will most likely be unanimous with the exception of Jimmy J because only Santa Claus knows what the fuck Jimmy J really wants.

On another interesting front, due to the insanity ensuing on the Palena tribe, a different cross-tribe alliance is forming between HoHo/JoJo and Wendy Jo/Jake. I have a feeling the Palena side of this alliance will fare better than the Atacama side. Jake is pretty much out of the loop and I’m not sure Holly has any power to change anything even if she wanted to. This could lend itself to exciting developments though as the varying cross-tribe alliances share information with each other.

I’m not sure about the MILFs anymore and if the ladies will ensure that Holly doesn't go anywhere. The closer bond seems to be forming between Yve and Jill, and well Yve and everyone else in the tribe. From Yve’s and Jill’s perspective, I have no idea if they would cut bait on Holly to stick with John/Brook or not. It’s probably too soon to speculate.

Fabio, Ken, and Jake don’t give a fuck who gets voted out unless it is not one of them apparently. Ken and Jake seem to have the combined strategic prowess of a howler monkey. And from what I can tell of Fabio, he really doesn’t give a shit as long as he stays safe.

Regarding Jimmy J…. whatever. The dude hasn't PMed anyone. He’s playing like a freaking lunatic and the only reason he’s not seriously being brought up as a target is because he is an assclown who happens to be pretty damn good at the challenges.

So what happened to Jane? Well I ranked her in last place yesterday so this is pretty predictable. Jane somehow thinks she is acting strategically with her master plan to get Fabio to “flip” or whatever the fuck she is doing. The details are unclear. At the moment I’m not even sure if she wants him to “flip” to the newbies because she was willing to vote out Jill when Fabio told her that was the plan. I *think* she was trying to put together an alliance with six members - four of which were Jane, Holly, Ken and Fabio but she never told any of them who the other two were and the mystery two remain unknown (I don't think they exist). Holly has speculated that the other two were Russell and someone else from Palena and no one was having that. Alarm bells are sounding all over the Atacama camp. Holly clearly wanted to target Jane already, and then the Brook/Jill agreement just sealed the deal. Jane is a goner tonight unless something completely alien happens.

At this point, I think it’s pretty safe to say that John, Brook, Yve, and Jill are in a pretty good spot on Atacama as long as John doesn't go and fuck that up, which is a strong possibility. John keeps ranting about what a cunt Brook is and how he knows he’s going to backstab him. I don’t know if this is for show, or if he really believes that. If he really believes that, and reacts accordingly, he could blow up a very cushy position that he currently has set up. Brook actually ranked John as the number one person he likes and trusts on the tribe. I have a premonition that John is going to become the Brook of Season 18 and emotionally overreact to a very benign action by Brook and end up fucking up both of their games. So like I said, this whole thing is hanging by a thread, and while on the surface it would appear that a solid power is emerging on Atacama, that could disintegrate in a fiery ball of paranoid catastrophe at any moment. Shit. By the time I’m done with this blog the whole thing could have gone to hell already.

With that said, it’s time for the rankings:

Rankdown (Atacama):

10. Jane: Jane’s aggressive overplaying, coupled with her abysmal social effort, and poor challenge performance are sending her packing tonight. It’s a shame. Jane was one of my favorites. No one else in the tribe got to see how hilarious she was though. Oh well. Bye Vagina Neck.

9. Jimmy J: So Jimmy J’s latest strategic move was to start a thread on the tribe forum demanding that everyone post who they are voting for tonight because he hates fucking blindsides. And according to his confessional, he knows for a fact he is aligned with Fabio. I’ll say it again. The only reason this mongoloid will stay in the game tonight is because he is one of their best challenge competitors. I highly doubt that is going to save him for much longer. If they lose again tonight I could see him being the next to go.

8./7. Ken and Jake: Nope. Still can’t separate them. Jake may be a little bit higher than Ken in that he may have Holly protecting him due to the cross-tribe alliance. On the flip side, people seem to like Ken more than they do Jake. One of these two is going to go very soon. They are pretty clueless regarding what is happening around them (i.e. Ken’s assumption that the newbs are making a huge blunder tonight in eliminating Jane). And someone is going to want to take a shot at them to break up the Greek/Thai returnees. And they won’t get much push back from anyone for proposing that. One of these two will go before the merge. Can’t say which one. The only power they have at this point is Jake handing Holly information she gathers from Wendy Jo, and Holly somehow uses that. But even if that happened, it would probably be an accident.

6. Holly: I’m moving Holly down this round. Word is getting out about Jolanda gaining some power over on Palena, which is not going to sit well with John/Brook/Fabio. This coupled with the fact that she isn't too close with the vets, not included in any of the majority alliances that are forming, and is seen as a savvy player, may send her prematurely out the door. It will really depend on how much Jill and Yve would stick their necks out for her. From what I am seeing from both of them, I can’t see them sticking their necks out for anyone. Holly’s challenge strength could save her, but the only one who seems to care about that is Jimmy J. Hopefully she makes it until there’s another swap, because I would hate to see her go out early. She may struggle if she gets to the merge though.

5. Fabio: Fabio is playing the “as long as it’s not me” game and it seems to be working. He’s in a pretty safe spot for now, but I could see the Aussie boys wanting to take a shot at him sooner rather than later. Fabio has a great social game and everyone seems to like him. I just think he may be falling asleep at the wheel a bit and not shoring up his position in the tribe. And he hasn't strategically utilized the partner twist at all. If Brook and John don’t self-destruct, I would imagine they will make a move on him, maybe even before Holly. And I can’t say for sure, but his position with Chase may slowly be fading as the Aussie thing seems to be gaining momentum and becoming stronger and stronger from across the island.

4. Jill: Jill’s got game! It’s refreshing because she seemed like she was one of the more boring players this season. But as soon as Holly told her she was a potential target she went all HELLZ NO. She went and hoed herself out to Brook (which was actually the perfect person to ho herself to, even though that advice came from Ted) and he took the bait. She has now shimmied her way into a pretty cushy spot in what is looking out to be the core alliance at Atacama and working her way into John’s and Brook’s inner circles. That along with the MILFs will keep her safe for a long time. Remember, if there is another swap she’s got Dan’s undying loyalty as well.

3. Brook: Although Brook’s name has been thrown out as a boot option, and Ken and Jake somehow think he will be the next to go or something, , I still posit that Brook is in a really good position. He’s got the Aussies to whom he is showing his unquestionable loyalty by passing Chase and Ted information through Yve. And now he’s quickly building a core group of followers in Atacama as well. Things will get really messy if all seven/eight of them make the merge. But he will have options. Brook’s biggest threat is John getting paranoid and popping a nut and blowing up both of their games in a glorious explosion of fucktardedness. And it very well could happen.

2. John: John is really stepping up his social game and everyone seems to enjoy him. He’s positioned quite nicely for now and really is in no danger on either Atacama or cross tribe. Until he does something retarded to fuck it up like trying to get Brook out. John don’t do something retarded. Although the irony would be delicious.

1. Yve: She’s a goddess – and my fantasy pick but I’m not being biased. She has mastered the art of making each and every person think that they are her number one (except the fact that she told John that Brook was her favorite, but in a cute way). She ranks in the top three of everyone’s “like” list. She is central to every alliance that has been formed on Atacama (even Ken and Jake regarding their “alliance” with Fabio suggest Yve is their fourth)…. Let’s put it this way… I NEVER want to have to play against Yve. Never. She has mad skillz. [/quote]

Episode 2

Palena

So, all hell broke loose last night at the Palena camp even though they won immunity. Wendy Jo dropped the bomb she promised she would on Jolanda, essentially telling her that all of the vets were lying to her and she would have been the first boot had there not been a tribe swap. Ironically, mere minutes before this PM hit Jolanda’s inbox, Erica decided she didn’t hate Jolanda and made a F2 deal with her that she plans on keeping. At the same time, Erica also posted a public thread about a “rule” where if anyone sent her a boring PM she would no longer talk to them for the duration of the game. Ted was the first victim.

So….. Jolanda….. now finally in game mode, has teamed up with Wendy Jo and the plan is to vote Erica out the next time they go to tribal council. And due to Erica’s stunts last night with Ted, the only one who would have any objection to this even a little is Russell.

So that’s that. Now for the ranking:

Rankdown (Palena):

9. Erica: How the mighty have fallen. Whatever, she was only mighty in her own mind. Next time Palena loses, Erica is gone. I know some disagree with me because there is still some talk about Tyrone floating out there, however I highly doubt, after all the work Wendy Jo has done to pull this power move, she is going to waste it on a Tyrone boot, while simultaneously putting herself one guaranteed vote down. Erica will be the next boot from Palena. Erica better hope for an immunity run.

8. Tyrone: Tyrone is next on the list after Erica. Even the newbs are cutting ties with him. Obvious reasons are obvious.

7. Marty: Marty’s just not really clicking too well with people. He doesn't seem to have a lot of patience or desire to mingle socially and is kind of all game all the time. This coupled with the fact that Ted is looking to target him to ensure John goes into the merge sans partner, lends itself to Marty being an early boot.

6. Dan: Dan is setting himself up nicely to be the easy HBIC scapegoat if anything goes awry in his plan. I see people taking a shot at him earlier rather than later, without too many objections from anyone really. Maybe Wendy Jo may want to keep him around. Maybe. And since it really is up to Wendy Jo right now, I should probably focus on what she is thinking for the long term before writing these.

5. Russhole: Russhole hasn't really been filled in on the plan to boot Erica. Russhole is probably not going to be happy with this plan. This will hurt Russhole.

4. Chase: Chase isn't really running shit on Palena right now. He is running shit across the whole island. He may have his hand in too many pots though and this may come back to bite him. Wendy Jo really seems to like Chase, which should keep him safe. But at some point Chase is going to need to figure out that Wendy Jo is the one calling the shots here and do something about it.

3. Ted: Ted and Chase are pretty much in the same boat – sitting comfy in their Palena alliance and not worrying too much, while at the same time working the Aussie thing from across the land which may be clouding their judgment on what is going on at home. The reason I ranked Ted higher is because he just posted a long confessional that was extremely insightful, and a summary of recent reflection on his Greece game and how to rectify the mistakes he made there. Chad was impressed.

2. Jolanda: What? What? Yep. Jolanda is now in a power position as a swing vote and she’s ready to tear some shit up and stick it to some people. This is gonna be fun. [/quote]

1. Wendy Jo: Wendy Jo, in a matter of two PMs to the right, has transformed into the top goddess of Palena. She is in charge. Things will go how Wendy Jo determines they go until further notice. I could write a novel about this, but I’m going to keep it short. She is a force to be reckoned with in this game.

Ya know... I was just thinking about this and in my original blog entry above I was overly critical of Ken and Jake and I think that was harsh. Obviously I know things they don't, and the fact that they are in the dark about a lot was leading me to believe they aren't playing the game, which isn't necessarily true. I think they are both just really in that "want to make the merge and redeem themselves" mindset and are playing overly cautious, which may not be the best approach with this group. Jake is trying to work the partner angle, and Ken having Tyrone eliminates that option for him. I'm just not sure their friendliness with everyone is going to be enough to keep them in the game for very long with all the scheming that is going on with everyone else. But who knows?

Please don't tell me you're not falling for the Wendy Jo bullshit. That bitch is toast the minute she loses control to a swap or twist.

Well.... she's in control right now. Of course that can change the second anyone figures out what is happening - Chase, Ted, shit even Dan. Dan started talking about how he was a bit annoyed with WJ tonight being a little too bossy (that's Dan's role ). It could all change in an instant.

Will hopefully get Episodes 3 and 4 up later tonight.

I quite like Wendy Jo here. She is definitely on the verge though, I've seen her go both ways before and she mosdef needs to ease up a little. The cockiness doesn't wear well on her and it's beginning to spill out of her confessional. She is at her best when she is *that super close pal* and as soon as people start looking at her as a tad controlling and/or clingy she can get herself in trouble. Her biggest fault I think, is that she'll approach that problem with more of the same :/ Get cockier or even more controlling, instead of taking a step back.

Yea. It seems like she is turning into HBIC and doesn't have any problem with anyone knowing it. Of course I've pretty much missed the last two days, but that's based on my perception of what is happening.

OK. So let's call Episodes 3-5 Chad's Bridezilla stretch and just write it off. There's no way I can go back and figure out what happened and why. Between babysitting inlaws and every single detail of every single person in their entire family of how they are going to get on a plane and fly from Ohio to New Jersey down to who may have an extra carry on bag, trying to book vendors, and figuring out my "wedding colors", which I honestly don't give a shit about, I'm losing my goddamn mind. But that is neither here nor there. Back to the game.

Erica and Jimmy T were obvious boots. So there's nothing shocking there.

I am a little curious about the Fabio boot. Chase and Ted apparently cut him loose which I find interesting, but at the same time not surprising. Fabio was not forming good personal relationships with people except for being friendly. Which I think was his MO and has worked for him in the past. But it sounds like in this cast of schemers, that just wasn't cutting it. So it's not exactly shocking.

I will start paying attention again tomorrow and try to give a more detailed episode rundown. Until the next Bridezilla moment hits I suppose. I really never thought I would be like this. I'm 35 years old. I didn't want much ado. But I am now completely understanding how women lose their minds and become psychotic bitches trying to deal with this stuff. It's the families that make them freaking crazy.

So back to Stranded tomorrow. Hopefully.

Damn, I came in here for a catch-up myself. So hows the dress? :-*